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July 21, 2015

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Posted: 21 Jul 2015 12:06 AM PDT

'AIIB: The First International Financial Institution of the 21st Century'

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 10:39 AM PDT

Cecchetti & Schoenholtz:

AIIB: The first international financial institution of the 21st century: ...What happens when official international financial institutions (IFIs) fail to respond to a changing environment? The same thing that happens to firms that stop innovating. New, more competitive institutions (firms) arise that compel them to change or – like dinosaurs – become extinct.
We may be witnessing this process of creative destruction right now. Last month, a group of 57 founding nations led by China signed the articles of agreement to establish the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with an initial subscribed capital of $100 billion. While most of the G20 nations, including the big European states, Australia, and South Korea, are among the founding members, the United States, Japan, and Canada are noticeably not.
No one disputes the need for more official infrastructure funding... What we find the most interesting is that the AIIB founders didn't ask member countries to approve an expansion of either the World Bank or the ADB. Instead, they opted for a new organization altogether.
Why? The problem is institutional legitimacy arising from issues of power and governance. ...
The most glaring problem with the 20th century IFI's – the BIS, IMF, World Bank and the regional development banks – is representation. ... Perhaps most important are the veto rights. ...
Is the AIIB likely to do better? There are reasons to be hopeful. ...
Of course, the proof will be in the pudding. When the AIIB begins operations, observers will be watching closely whether these ideals are realized. ...
As economists, we like competition. If the AIIB meets the high standards its leaders espouse, it will heighten the pressure on the existing IFIs' political masters to change with the times. In addition, in light of numerous potential areas of conflict between China and the United States (think cyberspace and the South China Sea for starters), wouldn't we all benefit from having these two leading economies and governments instead focus their competitive energies on improving global infrastructure finance?
From this perspective, we see a powerful argument for the United States to do two things.  First, the U.S. Congress should belatedly approve the IMF's 2010 Quota and Governance Reforms to signal its support for continued global economic and financial cooperation in coming decades. And second, after failing to stop the AIIB, and refusing to participate as a founding member, the United States should join the institution as soon as it can, participating actively in holding it to the highest 21st century standards.

Paul Krugman: Europe’s Impossible Dream

Posted: 20 Jul 2015 09:44 AM PDT

Why did Europe ignore the "euroskeptics"?:

Europe's Impossible Dream, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ... To someone who didn't know much economics, or chose to ignore awkward questions, establishing a unified European currency sounded like a great idea. It would make doing business across national borders easier, while serving as a powerful symbol of unity. Who could have foreseen the huge problems the euro would eventually cause?
Actually, lots of people. ... The only big mistake of the euroskeptics was underestimating just how much damage the single currency would do.
The point is that it wasn't at all hard to see, right from the beginning, that currency union without political union was a very dubious project. So why did Europe go ahead with it?
Mainly, I'd say, because the idea of the euro sounded ... forward-looking, European-minded, exactly the kind of thing that appeals to the kind of people who give speeches at Davos. Such people didn't want nerdy economists telling them that their glamorous vision was a bad idea...
And the euro came. For a decade after its introduction a huge financial bubble masked its underlying problems. But now ... all of the skeptics' fears have been vindicated.
Furthermore, the story doesn't end there. When the predicted and predictable strains on the euro began, Europe's policy response was to impose draconian austerity on debtor nations — and to deny the simple logic and historical evidence indicating that such policies would inflict terrible economic damage while failing to achieve the promised debt reduction.
It's astonishing even now how blithely top European officials dismissed warnings that slashing government spending and raising taxes would cause deep recessions...
What should Europe do now? There are no good answers — but the reason there are no good answers is because the euro has turned into a Roach Motel, a trap that's hard to escape. If Greece still had its own currency, the case for devaluing that currency, improving Greek competitiveness and ending deflation, would be overwhelming.
The fact that Greece no longer has a currency, that it would have to create one from scratch, vastly raises the stakes. My guess is that euro exit will still prove necessary. And in any case it will be essential to write down much of Greece's debt.
But we're not having a clear discussion of these options, because European discourse is still dominated by ideas the continent's elite would like to be true, but aren't. And Europe is paying a terrible price for this monstrous self-indulgence.

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