- 'Do You Have to Choose Growth or Development?'
- 'The Financial Pressures of the Middle Class'
- 'Demographic Structure and the Macroeconomy'
- Links for 04-08-15
Posted: 08 Apr 2015 12:59 AM PDT
Do You Have to Choose Growth or Development?: A number of posts/comments have been floating around the last few days that deal with the goals or the World Bank. Lant Pritchett published a piece that asks whether rich countries are in fact good partners for poor countries looking to develop. Pritchett is worried that rich-country development agencies (including the World Bank) have altered their focus from promoting overall economic development, and "defined development down" to be only about alleviating the conditions for the extremely poor – those earning less than $1 per day. ... Pritchett argues that this is to ignore the goals/values/hopes of actual people in those developing countries, who very much would like some material economic growth, please.
I'm very much on Pritchett's side on this, with a caveat I'll get to later in the post. I wrote a post back when I started this blog on defining development economics. I contrasted "development economics" with the "economics of poverty". ...
Pritchett is arguing, in my mind, for the World Bank to return to thinking about growth economics, or about development in the classic sense. Looking for projects like ports, roads, energy generation, and the like. Scale-intensive activities that need someone to coordinate the investment, and investments that will not take place organically because they are essentially public goods. Things that might allow or push economies into sustained growth. ...
Acting to alleviate poverty is a noble, useful, moral activity. But you do not get sustained growth as a freebie on top of it. What Pritchett is arguing (I think. I'm putting words in his mouth here.) is that the Bank has presumed that their poverty alleviation efforts will generate growth as a byproduct. They haven't, and most likely won't. Growth is a distinct dimension of development different from poverty alleviation.
Now, here is my caveat to supporting Pritchett's position. Who cares if it is specifically the World Bank that provides that infrastructure investment supporting economic growth? If the aims and goals of the World Bank have changed to poverty alleviation, fine. Let that be their focus, and the business of promoting growth can be left in the hands of other entities.
This has essentially already happened, and it isn't clear why one should try to stop it. ... Development banks such as the Inter-American Development Bank, the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the new bank proposed by China are all in the business of lending for large infrastructure projects. Let them.
I think Pritchett is wasting his time here, trying to turn the World Bank to a new (actually, old) heading. The Bank is a gargantuan organization, and has reached the point where self-perpetuation is as important as the actual mission. This isn't to trash the World Bank, it's no worse than any other large organization on this front. But if the nature of the interventions that the Bank wants to undertake has changed, so be it. Argue instead for increased funding to the existing development banks. Argue for the US to drop its opposition to the Chinese-led development bank. It may be useful or best to separate the poverty alleviation and growth-promotion, anyway. But you need both. Poverty alleviation alone is not a robust path to long-run sustained economic development.
Posted: 08 Apr 2015 12:34 AM PDT
From the St. Louis Fed blog On the Economy:
Posted: 08 Apr 2015 12:34 AM PDT
Yunus Aksoy and Henrique Basso at Vox EU:
Demographic Structure and the Macroeconomy: The disappointing recovery after the crisis has sparked renewed interest in the medium-run outlook of advanced economies. Lower population growth and its impact on labour supply gained widespread prominence. This column takes a more general view identifying the impact of the evolution of demographic structure, or the entire age profile, on the macroeconomy. Age profile changes have significant implications for savings, investment and growth but also affect innovation activities. The population aging predicted for the next decades is found to be a significant factor in reducing output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.
Posted: 08 Apr 2015 12:06 AM PDT
|You are subscribed to email updates from Economist's View |
To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.
|Email delivery powered by Google|
|Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States|