- Links for 11-06-14
- Election Thread
- 'Neo-Fisherites and the Scandinavian Flick'
- 'Forecasting Inflation with Fundamentals . . . It’s Hard!'
Posted: 06 Nov 2014 12:06 AM PST
Posted: 05 Nov 2014 09:49 AM PST
If you have thoughts on the election...
Posted: 05 Nov 2014 09:25 AM PST
Neo-Fisherites and the Scandinavian Flick: Noah Smith wonders if "reality might topple a beloved economic theory". Well, if you look at Sweden, reality just confirmed that beloved economic theory. The Riksbank raised interest rates because it was scared that low interest rates would cause financial instability. Lars Svensson resigned in protest. Then inflation fell, and the Riksbank needed to cut interest rates even lower than before.
That's only one data point. But there are loads more.
Posted: 05 Nov 2014 09:11 AM PST
It's a mystery why inflation is such a mystery:
Forecasting Inflation with Fundamentals . . . It's Hard!, by Jan Groen, Liberty Street Economics, NY Fed: Controlling inflation is at the core of monetary policymaking, and central bankers would like to have access to reliable inflation forecasts to assess their progress in achieving this goal. Producing accurate inflation forecasts, however, turns out not to be a trivial exercise. This posts reviews the key challenges in inflation forecasting and discusses some recent developments that attempt to deal with these challenges. ...
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