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September 4, 2014

Latest Posts from Economist's View

Latest Posts from Economist's View


Links for 9-04-14

Posted: 04 Sep 2014 12:06 AM PDT

A Conversation with Lars Hansen

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 09:00 AM PDT

See also conversations with Peter Diamond and Edmund Phelps.

Minority Mortgage Market Experiences and the Financial Crisis

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 08:00 AM PDT

Stephen Ross at Vox EU:

Minority mortgage market experiences leading up to and during the Financial Crisis, by Stephen L. Ross, Vox EU: The subprime lending crisis in the US triggered a broad financial panic that lead to the global recession. Domestically, it meant bankruptcy and disaster for many households. This column analyses racial discrimination in subprime lending. Careful estimation of a detailed dataset reveals across-lender effects to have substantially disadvantaged black and Hispanic borrowers.

The concluding paragraph:

... Minority homebuyers – especially blacks – tend to face a higher cost of mortgage credit and had substantially worse credit market outcomes during the recent downturn than white homebuyers with equivalent mortgage risk factors. In terms of the price of credit, a majority of the unexplained differences are associated with the lender from which the homebuyer obtained credit. These effects are felt most among minority borrowers with the lowest levels of education, and are likely due in part to the concentrated activity of subprime lenders in minority neighborhoods and a lack of knowledge of financial markets among minority borrowers with low levels of education. On the other hand, most of the racial differences in loan performance that are unexplained by traditional credit risk factors cannot be captured by controlling for the lender or other aspects of subprime lending. African-Americans and Hispanics appear to be more vulnerable to an economic downturn and to the associated risks of unemployment and housing price declines than observationally similar white homeowners. This higher vulnerability is most pronounced for borrowers who purchased their homes right before the onset of the financial crisis, even after controlling for the increased risk of negative equity associated with buying at the peak of the market. While the expansion of the subprime sector may have contributed to a higher cost of credit for black homebuyers, their concentration in high cost loans (and in the subprime market more generally) can explain only a small portion of the racial differences in foreclosure. Rather, a broad spectrum of black and Hispanic borrowers appear to be especially vulnerable to the economic downturn and associated shocks to their ability to meet their mortgage commitments.

The Cause of Sagging Job Growth Since 2000

Posted: 03 Sep 2014 07:46 AM PDT

I have another article at MoneyWatch:

Sagging job growth: It's not a skills gap, by Mark Thoma: Many economists believe the rise in inequality can be explained by factors that have increasingly rewarded college-educated workers over those without a college degree. This "skills premium" has caused the middle class to shrink and polarized the labor market. The solution to these problems is the often-heard call for improved education and retraining programs that will give workers the skills they need to thrive in modern economies.
Employment in manufacturing industries has been hit particularly hard over the last few decades, and economists have pointed to work by David Autor, an economics professor at MIT, and others suggesting that this has resulted more from technological change than from globalization and declining bargaining power of workers (e.g. due to the power of unions).
According to this view, outsourcing is not the main problem. ... However, new work by Autor and several prominent co-authors calls this into question...

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