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September 25, 2014

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Posted: 25 Sep 2014 12:06 AM PDT

Where and When Macroeconomics Went Wrong

Posted: 24 Sep 2014 11:27 AM PDT

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Where macroeconomics went wrong: In my view, the answer is in the 1970/80s with the New Classical revolution (NCR). However I also think the new ideas that came with that revolution were progressive. I have defended rational expectations, I think intertemporal theory is the right place to start in thinking about consumption, and exploring the implications of time inconsistency is very important to macro policy, as well as many other areas of economics. I also think, along with nearly all macroeconomists, that the microfoundations approach to macro (DSGE models) is a progressive research strategy.
That is why discussion about these issues can become so confused. New Classical economics made academic macroeconomics take a number of big steps forward, but a couple of big steps backward at the same time. The clue to the backward steps comes from the name NCR. The research program was anti-Keynesian (hence New Classical), and it did not want microfounded macro to be an alternative to the then dominant existing methodology, it wanted to replace it (hence revolution). Because the revolution succeeded (although the victory over Keynesian ideas was temporary), generations of students were taught that Keynesian economics was out of date. They were not taught about the pros and cons of the old and new methodologies, but were taught that the old methodology was simply wrong. And that teaching was/is a problem because it itself is wrong. ...

'Hungry Children in America'

Posted: 24 Sep 2014 09:38 AM PDT

Tim Taylor:

Hungry Children in America: One child in five in the United States lives in a "food insecure" household. Craig Gundersen and James P. Ziliak lay out the evidence in "Childhood Food Insecurity in the U.S.: Trends, Causes, and Policy Options,"  a Fall 2014 Research Report written for The Future of Children. ...

Unsurprisingly, families that are poor are more likely to experience food insecurity. But perhaps more surprisingly, the connection from poverty to food insecurity is by no means ironclad. After all, the U.S. spends over $100 billion on food-related programs for the poor, including food stamps, school lunches and breakfasts and others. As the authors write:

Clearly, the risk for child food insecurity drops quickly with income. But even at incomes two and three times the poverty level, food insecurity is quite high. Moreover, almost 60 percent of children in households close to the poverty line are in foodsecure households. This suggests that income is only part of the story and that other factors also contribute to children's food security.

As the authors dig into the data on children living in food-insecure households, the theme that keeps emerging is the quality of parenting the children receive. ...

The takeaway lesson, at least for me, is that food stamps and school lunches do help to reduce food insecurity, as do programs that provide income support to those with low incomes. But when the adults in a household are having trouble managing their own lives, children end up suffering. The answers here are straightforward to name, if not always easy to do, like finding ways to get food to children directly (perhaps by expanding school food programs to the summers and weekends) and to help parents in low-income households learn how to stretch their limited resources.  As I have argued before on this website, for many children, the parenting gap they experience may be limiting their development even from a very young age.

'Having It and Flaunting It'

Posted: 24 Sep 2014 09:19 AM PDT

Paul Krugman:

Having It and Flaunting It: David Brooks is getting some ribbing for suggesting that the wealthy should "follow a code of seemliness", not living the lavish lifestyles they can afford. ...I want to talk a bit about the economics of flaunting your wealth...
The first thing to say is that expecting the rich not to flaunt their wealth is, of course, unrealistic..., for many of the rich flaunting is what it's all about. ... So it's largely about display — which Thorstein Veblen could, of course, have told you. ...
Wait, there's more. If you feel that it's bad for society to have people flaunting their relative wealth, you have in effect accepted the view that great wealth imposes negative externalities on the rest of the population — which is an argument for progressive taxation that goes beyond the maximization of revenue.
And one more thing: think about what this says about economic growth. We have an economy that has become considerably richer since 1980, but with a large share of the gains going to people with very high incomes — people for whom the marginal utility of a dollar's worth of spending ... comes largely from status competition, which is a zero-sum game. So a lot of our economic growth has simply been wasted, doing nothing but accelerating the pace of the upper-income rat race. ...

From the past, my view of what wealth is for:

What is Rich?: ...When I was a little kid, being rich meant being able to buy the stuff I wanted without having to worry about how much it costs.

But as I got older -- and maybe this explains my choice of jobs -- being rich was much more about the ability to do what I wanted with my time. In this sense, you can have considerable wealth, but still not be rich. In fact, the quest for more and more stuff gets in the way (though it depends in part on what you want to do with your free time, if it's to play golf at an expensive club, sufficient wealth is a necessary condition).

Some of the richest people I know are quite poor in terms of having "stuff", but free of the rat race, and as far as I can tell, they are generally happy. I think a lot of people are actually looking for freedom as they accumulate wealth -- they imagine being able to do whatever they want -- but don't realize that working longer and longer hours until there is no time left for anything else is not the best the way to get the freedom they are looking for. ...

But for many it seems the accumulation of "stuff" and the envy of people who cannot afford it is more important than freedom from the never ending job of status competition.

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