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August 19, 2014

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Links for 8-19-14

Posted: 19 Aug 2014 12:06 AM PDT

'Understanding the Decline in the Labor Force Participation'

Posted: 18 Aug 2014 05:03 AM PDT

[Long, long travel day today, so just a few quick ones before hitting the road.]

Steven Braun, John Coglianese, Jason Furman, Betsey Stevenson, and Jim Stock:

Understanding the decline in the labour force participation rate in the United States, by Steven Braun, John Coglianese, Jason Furman, Betsey Stevenson, and Jim Stock, Vox EU: The labour force participation rate in the US has fallen dramatically since 2007. This column traces this decline to three main factors: the ageing of the population, cyclical effects from the Great Recession, and an unexplained portion, which might be due to pre-existing trends unrelated to the first two. Of these three, the ageing of the population plays the largest role since it is responsible for half of the decline. Taken together, these factors suggest a roughly stable participation rate in the short-term, followed by a longer-term decline as the baby boomers continue to age. However, policy can play a meaningful role in mitigating this trend. ...

'Balanced-Budget Fundamentalism'

Posted: 18 Aug 2014 05:03 AM PDT

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Balanced-budget fundamentalism: Europeans, and particularly the European elite, find popular attitudes to science among many across the Atlantic both amusing and distressing. In Europe we do not have regular attempts to replace evolution with 'intelligent design' on school curriculums. Climate change denial is not mainstream politics in Europe as it is in the US (with the possible exception of the UK). Yet Europe, and particularly its governing elite, seems gripped by a belief that is as unscientific and more immediately dangerous. It is a belief that fiscal policy should be tightened in a liquidity trap. In the UK economic growth is currently strong, but that cannot disguise the fact that this has been the slowest recovery from a recession for centuries. Austerity may not be the main cause of that, but it certainly played its part. Yet the government that undertook this austerity, instead of trying to distract attention from its mistake, is planning to do it all over again. Either this is a serious intention, or a ruse to help win an election, but either way it suggests events have not dulled its faith in this doctrine. ...

'To RMB or not to RMB? Lessons from Currency History'

Posted: 18 Aug 2014 05:03 AM PDT

Cecchetti & Schoenholtz:

To RMB or not to RMB? Lessons from Currency History: China is the world's largest trader and (on a purchasing power parity basis) is about to surpass the United States as the world's largest economy (see chart). China already accounts for about 10% of global trade in goods and services, and over 15% of global economic activity. ...
So, as China takes its place as the biggest economy on the globe, will its currency, the renminbi (RMB), become the most widely used international currency as well? Will the RMB supplant the U.S. dollar as the leading reserve currency held by central bankers and others, or as the safe-haven currency in financial crises? ...

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