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July 25, 2014

Latest Posts from Economist's View

Latest Posts from Economist's View


Paul Krugman: Left Coast Rising

Posted: 25 Jul 2014 12:24 AM PDT

Beware of "anti-government propaganda":

Left Coast Rising, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: The states, Justice Brandeis famously pointed out, are the laboratories of democracy. And it's still true. For example, one reason we knew or should have known that Obamacare was workable was the post-2006 success of Romneycare in Massachusetts. More recently, Kansas went all-in on supply-side economics, slashing taxes on the affluent in the belief that this would spark a huge boom; the boom didn't happen, but the budget deficit exploded, offering an object lesson to those willing to learn from experience.
And there's an even bigger if less drastic experiment under way in the opposite direction. California has long suffered from political paralysis, with budget rules that allowed an increasingly extreme Republican minority to hamstring a Democratic majority; when the state's housing bubble burst, it plunged into fiscal crisis. In 2012, however, Democratic dominance finally became strong enough to overcome the paralysis, and Gov. Jerry Brown was able to push through a modestly liberal agenda of higher taxes, spending increases and a rise in the minimum wage. California also moved enthusiastically to implement Obamacare.
I guess we're not in Kansas anymore. (Sorry, I couldn't help myself.)
Needless to say, conservatives predicted doom. A representative reaction: Daniel J. Mitchell of the Cato Institute declared that by voting for Proposition 30, which authorized those tax increases, "the looters and moochers of the Golden State" (yes, they really do think they're living in an Ayn Rand novel) were committing "economic suicide." ...
What has actually happened? There is ... no sign of the promised catastrophe. If tax increases are causing a major flight of jobs from California, you can't see it in the job numbers. Employment is up 3.6 percent in the past 18 months, compared with a national average of 2.8 percent...
And, yes, the budget is back in surplus.
Has there been any soul-searching among the prophets of California doom, asking why they were so wrong? Not that I'm aware of. ...
So what do we learn from the California comeback? Mainly, that you should take anti-government propaganda with large helpings of salt. Tax increases aren't economic suicide; sometimes they're a useful way to pay for things we need. Government programs, like Obamacare, can work if the people running them want them to work, and if they aren't sabotaged from the right. In other words, California's success is a demonstration that the extremist ideology still dominating much of American politics is nonsense.

Links for 7-25-14

Posted: 25 Jul 2014 12:06 AM PDT

Should the Fed be Forced to Follow a Rule?

Posted: 24 Jul 2014 08:37 AM PDT

Me, at MoneyWatch:

Should the Fed have to play by a rule?: What if the U.S. Federal Reserve Board had to implement monetary policy according to a specific rule that would require specific policy actions depending on the circumstances?
That's the intent of a bill Republicans in the House of Representatives recently proposed. The Federal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act would force the Fed's conduct of monetary policy to follow a prescribed rule...
Economists have long debated whether specific rules are better than giving central bankers the discretion to set monetary policy as they see fit. Here are the arguments for and against policy rules, and a compromise position that many economists advocate. ...

Meritocracy won’t happen: the problem’s with the ‘ocracy’

Posted: 24 Jul 2014 08:27 AM PDT

Andrew Gelman:

Meritocracy won't happen: the problem's with the 'ocracy', by Andrew Gelman, Monkey Cage: I've written about this before but I think the topic is worth returning to, because it comes up a lot in our political discourse.

For example, consider this recent post by Robert Reich (link from Mark Thoma):

The "self-made" man or woman, the symbol of American meritocracy, is disappearing. Six of today's ten wealthiest Americans are heirs to prominent fortunes. . . . We don't have to sit by and watch our meritocracy be replaced by a permanent aristocracy . . .

I don't disagree with Reich on the data..., the data seem to support Reich's point that lots of rich people come from rich families.

But I want to dispute Reich's other statement, which is that this is somehow contrary to the spirit of "meritocracy."

I claim the opposite: that inherited privilege is an intrinsic and central aspect of meritocracy. ...

'Sticky Prices and Behavioral Indifference Curves'

Posted: 24 Jul 2014 08:20 AM PDT

Is this why prices are sticky?:

Sticky prices and behavioural indifference curves, by John Komlos, Vox EU: Many quantities fail to respond smoothly to price changes. This column stresses that the 'endowment effect' – a well-known behavioral economics concept – implies kinks in indifference curves at the current consumption bundle price. Such kinks may account for the stickiness of prices, wages, and interest rates.

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