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June 20, 2014

Latest Posts from Economist's View

Latest Posts from Economist's View


Paul Krugman: Veterans and Zombies

Posted: 20 Jun 2014 12:33 AM PDT

Don't let "zombie arguments" derail health care reform:

Veterans and Zombies, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: You've surely heard about the scandal at the Department of Veterans Affairs. A number of veterans found themselves waiting a long time for care, some of them died before they were seen, and some of the agency's employees falsified records to cover up the extent of the problem. It's a real scandal...
But the goings-on at Veterans Affairs shouldn't cause us to lose sight of a much bigger scandal:... the Veterans Affairs scandal, while real, is being hyped out of proportion by people whose real goal is to block reform of the larger system.
The essential, undeniable fact about American health care is how incredibly expensive it is — twice as costly per capita as the French system, two-and-a-half times as expensive as the British system. You might expect all that money to buy results, but the United States actually ranks low on basic measures of performance...
As you might guess, conservatives don't like the observation that American health care performs worse than other countries' systems because it relies too much on the private sector and the profit motive. So whenever someone points out the obvious, there is a chorus of denial... It turns out, however, that such claims invariably end up relying on zombie arguments — that is, arguments that have been proved wrong, should be dead, but keep shambling along because they serve a political purpose.
Which brings us to veterans' care. ... It's still true that Veterans Affairs provides excellent care, at low cost. Those waiting lists arise partly because so many veterans want care, but Congress has provided neither clear guidelines on who is entitled to coverage, nor sufficient resources to cover all applicants. ...
Yet, on average, veterans don't appear to wait longer for care than other Americans. And does anyone doubt that many Americans have died while waiting for approval from private insurers?
A scandal is a scandal... But beware of people trying to use the veterans' care scandal to derail health reform.
And here's the thing: Health reform is working. Too many Americans still lack good insurance, and hence lack access to health care and protection from high medical costs — but not as many as last year, and next year should be better still. Health costs are still far too high, but their growth has slowed dramatically. We're moving in the right direction, and we shouldn't let the zombies get in our way.

'Inequality in the Long Run'

Posted: 20 Jun 2014 12:24 AM PDT

Piketty and Saez (from the May issue of Science):

Inequality in the long run, by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez: The distribution of income and wealth is a widely discussed and contraoversial topic. Do the dynamics of private capital accumulation inevitably lead to the concentration of income and wealth in ever fewer hands, as Karl Marx believed in the 19th century? Or do the balancing forces of growth, competition, and technological progress lead in later stages of development to reduced inequality and greater harmony among the classes, as Simon Kuznets thought in the 20th century? What do we know about how income and wealth have evolved since the 18th century, and what lessons can we derive from that knowledge for the century now under way? For a long time, social science research on the distribution of income and wealth was based on a relatively limited set of firmly established facts together with a wide variety of purely theoretical speculations. In this Review, we take stock of recent progress that has been made in this area. We present a number of basic facts regarding the long-run evolution of income and wealth inequality in advanced countries. We then discuss possible interpretations and lessons for the future. ...

Links for 6-20-14

Posted: 20 Jun 2014 12:06 AM PDT

Fed Watch: Janet Yellen the Hawk

Posted: 19 Jun 2014 08:59 AM PDT

One more from Tim Duy:

Janet Yellen the Hawk, by Tim Duy: Yesterday I wrote a fairly conventional analysis of the outcome of the FOMC meeting and the subsequent press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.  I think that analysis is consistent with that of the median policymaker on Constitution Avenue:  As long as the economy continues to grind upward at a moderate pace and inflation pressures remain constrained, the expected path of short term interest rates is one of a slow rise with the first hike somewhere around a year away.
That view is, of course, data dependent, and given the current readings on inflation and unemployment, combined with a policy stance that is basically ignoring both in favor of untested measures of underemployment, the risk is that the rate path is steeper, and the first hike comes sooner, than currently anticipated.  Under the current circumstances, I expect the median policymaker's willingness to risk falling behind the curve will decrease during the next six months. 
Moreover, I would caution against interpreting Yellen's soft inflation outlook as her being soft on inflation.  I think quite the opposite message came through at yesterday's press conference.  Yellen was showing her hawkish side. 
First, note that the Fed's terminal Federal Funds rate edged down to 3.75% from 4% in March, a consequence of falling estimates of potential growth.  The Fed thus appears to be conforming to the "new normal" in which equilibrium interest rates have fallen.  In short, the Fed appears to take the terminal Fed Funds rates as exogenous.  
The terminal Fed Funds rates, however, is not exogenous.  It is an inflation markup over estimates of potential growth.  The Fed could allow interest rates to return to normal by allowing expected inflation to rise.  From the Fed's point of view, however, the inflation rate is really not an endogenous choice.  They view the 2% target is essentially exogenous, a number handed down in scripture, an element of the Ten Commandments.  That the Fed should allow estimates of the terminal Fed Funds rate to fall is a testament to their commitment to the 2% target.
Second, it is not clear that the potential growth rate is entirely exogenous.  In her press conference, Yellen commented that lower potential growth estimates are a consequence of slower investment (less capital formation) and persistent damage to the labor market.  In the secular stagnation scenario, however, these are arguably the consequences of holding real interest rates too high and deliberately allowing the cyclical damage to become structural.  But at the zero bound, the Fed would need to target higher inflation expectations to lower the real interest rate further.  That is not on the table.  The lower bound on real interest rates is -2% because the upper bound on inflation is 2%.
In other words, Yellen and Co. are so committed to the 2% inflation target that they are willing to tolerate a persistently lower level of national output to maintain that target.   That sounds pretty hawkish to me.
Finally, Yellen's willingness of allow overshooting of the inflation target are, in my opinion, less than meets the eye.  Financial reporters very much need to pin her and other policymakers down on this topic.  I suspect when they say overshooting, what they mean is no more than 25bp over target in the context of anchored inflation expectations.  If inflation expectations are anchored, however, expected real interest rates are not changing.  The loose comments about overshooting are nothing more than a commitment to not overreact to forecast errors.  It doesn't mean that the Fed will not raise interest rates in the face of overshooting, only that they will calibrate the rate of increase relative to their confidence that the overshooting is a forecast error.
Bottom Line:  Soft on the inflation forecast is not the same as soft on inflation.  Don't underestimate the Fed's commitment to the 2% target.  That commitment is what pushes the risk to the hawkish side of the policy equation in the current environment.

Did Timothy Geithner Pass the Test?

Posted: 19 Jun 2014 08:56 AM PDT

In case you missed this:

Does He Pass the Test?, by Paul Krugman: Midway through Timothy Geithner's Stress Test, the former treasury secretary describes a late-2008 conversation with the then president-elect. Obama "wanted to discuss what he should try to accomplish." Geithner's reply was that his accomplishment would be "preventing a second Great Depression." And Obama shot back that he didn't want to be defined by what he had prevented.
It's an ironic tale for Geithner to be telling, although it's not clear whether he himself realizes just how ironic. For Stress Test is meant to be a story of successful policy—but that success is defined not by what happened but by what didn't. America did indeed manage to avoid a full replay of the Great Depression—an achievement for which Geithner implicitly claims much of the credit, and with some justification. We did not, however, avoid economic disaster. By any plausible accounting, we've lost trillions of dollars' worth of goods and services that we could and should have produced; millions of Americans have lost their jobs, their homes, and their dreams. Call it the Lesser Depression—not as bad as the 1930s, but still a terrible thing. Not to mention the disastrous consequences abroad.
Or to use one of the medical metaphors Geithner likes, we can think of the economy as a patient who was rushed to the emergency room with a life-threatening condition. Thanks to the urgent efforts of the doctors present, the patient's life was saved. But while the doctors kept him alive, they failed to cure his underlying illness, so he emerged from the procedure partly crippled, and never fully recovered.
How should we think about the economic policy of these past seven or so years? ...

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