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April 15, 2014

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Posted: 15 Apr 2014 12:03 AM PDT

FRBSF Economic Letter: How Important Are Hedge Funds in a Crisis?

Posted: 14 Apr 2014 10:19 AM PDT

Another one that may be of interest:

How Important Are Hedge Funds in a Crisis?, by Reint Gropp, FRBSF Economic Letter: Before the 2007–09 crisis, standard risk measurement methods substantially underestimated the threat to the financial system. One reason was that these methods didn't account for how closely commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies were linked. As financial conditions worsened in one type of institution, the effects spread to others. A new method that more accurately accounts for these spillover effects suggests that hedge funds may have been central in generating systemic risk during the crisis.

How Well Do Economists Predict Turning Points?

Posted: 14 Apr 2014 10:06 AM PDT

This may be of interest:

"There will be growth in the spring": How well do economists predict turning points?, by Hites Ahir and Prakash Loungani: Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens.

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