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November 28, 2012

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Posted: 10 Nov 2012 12:06 AM PST

Fed Watch: Consumer Sentiment Back on Track

Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:17 PM PST

Tim Duy:

Consumer Sentiment Back on Track, by Tim Duy: The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment number for November rose to its highest level since 2007. Does this foreshadow a faster pace of consumer spending? I think it is too early make such predictions. Remember, sentiment has been rising since the middle of 2011, but consumer spending has sagged. So far this year, consumer sentiment has mostly played a game of catch-up.
In the middle of 2010, real household spending diverged from consumer sentiment. This year, the two series re-converged:

Conf1
Conf2

Consumer sentiment so far has simply returned to levels consistent with the pace of spending. Further gains, however, would be consistent with faster spending. Something to keep an eye on as an upside risk in 2013.

Net Wealth Shock in US, by Net Worth Percentile

Posted: 09 Nov 2012 11:00 AM PST

Via Amir Sufi on Twitter (@profsufi):

Net Wealth Shock in US, by Net Worth Percentile

Sufi[click on figure to enlarge]

  • For poor and median households, Great Recession wipes wipes out 20 years of net worth accumulation
  • For the rich, only small decline

[Link]

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