Stalemate, Checkmate, or Escape and Play On?

The White House is debating how to proceed from here given the growing likelihood that personal accounts will not reach a floor vote. Can they declare victory if the legislation does not include personal accounts, or should they keep battling for personal accounts to the end to appease a core constituency? Can they possibly get legislation with personal accounts even now? If no legislation is passed, can a political price be extracted from Democrats by labeling them as obstructionists to needed reform? In the story that follows, Democrats respond by declaring that Bush’s Social Security plan is dead:

Exit strategy on Social Security sought - GOP leaders cite impasse over private accounts, by Jonathan Weisman and Jim VandeHei, Washington Post: With the Senate Finance Committee at an impasse on Social Security and House leaders anxious about moving forward ... Senate GOP leaders, in discussions with White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove and political officials, have made it clear they are stuck in a deep rut and suggested it is time for an exit strategy, according to a senior Senate Republican official and Finance Committee aides. … White House officials at the highest levels recognize the problem … but to pull back from private accounts now would undermine Bush's congressional allies -- such as Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) -- with no guarantee that a compromise could be reached without the accounts. … White House aides have been locked in a debate over whether it would be a victory if Bush settled for a Social Security deal without private accounts. … But Rove, among others, has told Republicans that it would be unwise, both from a political and policy standpoint, to reduce benefits without offering people the potential of better returns through personal accounts … the White House believes a deal is possible if Grassley gets a bill -- no matter what it says -- to the Senate floor with a promise of a floor vote on private accounts. … A growing number of key Republicans are pessimistic. Graham said he has come to the conclusion that Democrats will not pay a political price, at least anytime soon, for killing the Bush plan without offering their own. … Democrats are unapologetic. Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), … said "They never wanted our votes on a prescription-drug bill. They didn't want our votes on taxes, and now they want it on Social Security?" he said. "Go ahead. Have your party-line vote. We'll see how it turns out."

While Republicans were debating, Democrats were declaring that personal accounts have no chance of moving forward:

Bush Social Security plan dead, Democrats say, Reuters: Democrats say President Bush's plan to restructure Social Security is dead but vow to keep attacking it until he publicly drops the individual investment account idea. "I think it's dead," said Sen. Debbie Stabenow a Michigan Democrat, echoing comments by other Democrats ... "I think it's clear the votes are not there to be able to move that forward." But with Bush showing no signs of giving up, private account opponents say they need to stay on the offensive. … Democrats say they will not negotiate with Republicans on the underlying issue of shoring up Social Security's finances until private accounts are off the table. …